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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 5-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to MIA 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at 50 for 19 yards (21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 84, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model