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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 94

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to MIA 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.75 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 94, worth -5.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 52, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model