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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

NYG
31.0%
NO
69.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.178 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Derek Carr (NO) -0.028 vs Tommy DeVito (NYG) -0.135 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19
–
NO 25
Projected margin: NO by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NYG

Evan Neal T Doubtful Ankle
Dexter Lawrence DT Questionable Hamstring
Justin Pugh G Questionable Calf
Darren Waller TE Questionable Hamstring

NO

Isaiah Foskey DE Out Quadricep
Kendre Miller RB Out Ankle
Payton Turner DE Out Toe
Chris Olave WR Questionable Ankle
Ryan Ramczyk T Questionable Knee
Jamaal Williams RB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 6
–
NO 24

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:06 FG NYG (10:06) 46-R.Bullock 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – NO 0
  • Q1 00:34 TD NO (:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 18-K.Kirkwood for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:05 FG NYG (:05) 6-J.Gillan 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-80-G.Olszewski. NYG 6 – NO 7
  • Q3 08:44 TD NO (8:44) 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – NO 13
  • Q3 04:22 FG NO (4:22) 19-B.Grupe 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NYG 6 – NO 17
  • Q4 10:51 TD NO (10:51) 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass short right to 80-J.Graham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – NO 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 65%

    (10:06) 46-R.Bullock 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (8:38) 39-L.Hedley punts 41 yards to NYG 32, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to NO 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 32 for 14 yards (59-C.Kreiter).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (14:15) 6-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to NO 32, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:33) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to NYG 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 10 for 2 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 20 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 48%

    (5:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 31 yards to NO 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:04) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to NYG 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 40 for 13 yards (46-A.Prentice).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 50%

    (1:19) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to NO 40 for 4 yards (99-K.Saunders).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%

    (:05) 6-J.Gillan 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:30) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to NO 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 43 for 10 yards (52-C.Coughlin).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 78%

    (4:22) 19-B.Grupe 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:01) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to NO 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 35 for 11 yards (52-C.Coughlin, 82-D.Bellinger).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (9:15) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to NO 46 for 8 yards (29-P.Adebo).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%

    (6:53) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Hyatt.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 60%

    (5:12) 39-L.Hedley punts 32 yards to NYG 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-42-T.Summers.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:48) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton to NO 31 for 33 yards (56-D.Davis). NO-28-L.Johnson was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 79%

    (2:04) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short left to 20-E.Gray.