Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 7 – New York Giants 3

(3:04) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to NYG 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 40 for 13 yards (46-A.Prentice).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.65 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model