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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 8 at the 44
New York Giants 6 – New Orleans Saints 24
What Actually Happened
(6:53) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Hyatt.
The Three Options
GO
-0.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
- 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.07 EP
KICK
-0.30 EP
- 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
- 50% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT
-0.52 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
