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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 40

New Orleans Saints 24 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 39-L.Hedley punts 32 yards to NYG 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-42-T.Summers.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP