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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to NYG 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 10 for 2 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.33 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model