Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 71

New York Giants 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

(7:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to NO 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 32 for 14 yards (59-C.Kreiter).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.80 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model