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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 54

New York Giants 6 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(9:15) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 17-W.Robinson to NO 46 for 8 yards (29-P.Adebo).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.53 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 54, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model