Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIN defense: -0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- CIN offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- MIN offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- CIN defense: +0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- QB edge to CIN: Jake Browning (CIN) +0.176 vs Nick Mullens (MIN) +0.174 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Nick Mullens in place of Joshua Dobbs)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
MIN
CIN
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:45 FG CIN (8:45) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. MIN 0 – CIN 3
- Q1 02:27 TD MIN (2:27) 32-T.Chandler right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – CIN 3
- Q3 10:54 TD MIN (10:54) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short middle to 3-J.Addison for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-C.Sample]. MIN 13 – CIN 3
- Q3 04:36 FG MIN (4:36) 1-G.Joseph 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 17 – CIN 3
- Q4 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – CIN 9
- Q4 07:49 TD CIN (7:49) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – CIN 16
- Q4 03:57 TD MIN (3:57) 12-N.Mullens pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Hubbard]. MIN 23 – CIN 17
- Q4 00:48 TD CIN (:48) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – CIN 23
- Q5 03:15 FG CIN (3:15) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. MIN 24 – CIN 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%
(8:45) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
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Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 61%
(1:30) 10-B.Robbins punts 51 yards to MIN 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 19 for 3 yards (38-D.Ivey). CIN-38-D.Ivey was injured during the play.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(15:00) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to CIN 29, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-C.Jones pushed ob at CIN 39 for 10 yards (91-P.Jones).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(11:55) 10-B.Robbins punts 49 yards to MIN 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 16 for 9 yards (56-D.Harper).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 14 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:44) 10-B.Robbins punts 36 yards to MIN 34, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 34 for no gain.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 91%
(4:36) 1-G.Joseph 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(13:32) 14-R.Wright punts 41 yards to CIN 29, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-C.Jones to CIN 37 for 8 yards (45-T.Dye).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(7:49) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 73 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(:19) 14-R.Wright punts 53 yards to CIN 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-A.Iosivas to CIN 20 for no gain. CIN-15-C.Jones was injured during the play.