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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 14-R.Wright punts 41 yards to CIN 29, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-C.Jones to CIN 37 for 8 yards (45-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model