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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 16

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.35 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model