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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 10-B.Robbins punts 49 yards to MIN 7, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 16 for 9 yards (56-D.Harper).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.10 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model