Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

(1:44) 10-B.Robbins punts 36 yards to MIN 34, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 4-B.Powell ran ob at MIN 34 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.10 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model