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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 10-B.Robbins punts 51 yards to MIN 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 19 for 3 yards (38-D.Ivey). CIN-38-D.Ivey was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP