4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 1-G.Joseph 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model