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Los Angeles Chargers

5-9 HC Brandon Staley
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

6-8 HC Antonio Pierce
Thursday 2023-12-14 · 20:15 ET Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 36.0

Win Probability

LAC
47.8%
LV
52.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to LV: Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.155 vs Easton Stick (LAC) -0.259 EPA/dropback (LAC starting Easton Stick in place of Justin Herbert)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LAC 21 14–28
–
LV 22 15–29
Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Out Heel
Deane Leonard CB Out Ankle
Otito Ogbonnia DT Questionable Knee
Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Questionable Hamstring
Donald Parham TE Questionable Shoulder
Nicholas Williams DT Questionable Shoulder

LV

Andre James C Out Ankle
Kolton Miller T Out Shoulder
Davante Adams WR Questionable Illness
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Quadricep
Brandon Facyson CB Questionable Shin
Adam Butler DT Questionable Ankle
Maxx Crosby DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 21
–
LV 63

Prediction missed by 41 pts on margin, 41 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:13 TD LV (8:13) 71-J.Herron reported in as eligible. 35-Z.White left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 6
  • Q1 04:47 TD LV (4:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LAC 0 – LV 13
  • Q1 03:13 TD LV (3:13) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 20
  • Q2 09:22 TD LV (9:22) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right to 87-M.Mayer for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 27
  • Q2 03:56 TD LV (3:56) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 34-B.Bolden. 34-B.Bolden left end for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 34
  • Q2 00:36 TD LV (:36) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 41
  • Q3 10:47 TD LV (10:47) (Shotgun) 71-J.Herron reported in as eligible. 16-J.Meyers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 48
  • Q3 10:37 TD LAC (10:37) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass deep left to 5-J.Palmer for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – LV 49
  • Q3 00:12 TD LV (:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at LAC 45 for -9 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], RECOVERED by LV-95-J.Jenkins at LAC 44. 95-J.Jenkins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – LV 55
  • Q4 14:35 TD LV (14:35) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short right intended for 30-A.Ekeler INTERCEPTED by 18-J.Jones at LAC 16. 18-J.Jones for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – LV 62
  • Q4 08:43 TD LAC (8:43) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 82-A.Erickson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – LV 63
  • Q4 02:42 TD LAC (2:42) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – LV 63

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:44) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-D.Carter. PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LV 17.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:21) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to LAC 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:58) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 3-D.Carter to LV 30 for 13 yards (20-D.Marlowe; 47-J.Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:55) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to LAC 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 16 for 5 yards (19-D.Turner). FUMBLES (19-D.Turner), RECOVERED by LV-19-D.Turner at LAC 14.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:32) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 3-D.Carter to LV 35 for 11 yards (40-S.Anderson; 47-J.Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 33%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 49 for no gain (5-D.Deablo, 90-J.Tillery). Penalty on LAC-7-G.Everett, Offensive Offside, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:26) 6-A.Cole punts 68 yards to LAC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 10 for 3 yards (19-D.Turner; 45-J.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:37) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to LV 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (3:34) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to LAC 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:10) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to LAC 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LAC-84-S.Smartt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 45.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:37) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to LAC 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →