4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 3-D.Carter to LV 30 for 13 yards (20-D.Marlowe; 47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.92 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model