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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 49

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to LV 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.50 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP