4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 63 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(:37) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to LAC 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.59 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -1.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model