Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 49 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(8:26) 6-A.Cole punts 68 yards to LAC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 10 for 3 yards (19-D.Turner; 45-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model