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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 63 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to LAC 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LAC-84-S.Smartt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 45.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.43 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP