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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

TB
46.1%
ATL
53.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Desmond Ridder (ATL): -0.085 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • ATL defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TB 21
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

TB

Jamel Dean CB Out Ankle
Devin White LB Out Foot
Vita Vea DT Questionable Toe
K.J. Britt LB Questionable Back

ATL

Nate Landman LB Out Knee
Kaleb McGary T Out Knee
David Onyemata DT Out Ankle
Lacale London DT Out Knee
Mack Hollins WR Questionable Ankle
Mike Hughes CB Questionable Hand
A.J. Terrell CB Questionable Concussion
Drew Dalman C Questionable Ankle
Jeff Okudah CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 29
–
ATL 25

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:32 FG TB (9:32) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – ATL 0
  • Q1 01:26 FG ATL (1:26) 6-Y.Koo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD TB (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – ATL 3
  • Q2 12:15 TD ATL (12:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – ATL 9
  • Q2 02:44 SAF TB (2:44) 9-D.Ridder sacked at ATL -2 for -10 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], touched at ATL -1, recovered by ATL-40-K.Smith at ATL -5. 40-K.Smith tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (79-P.O'Connor). TB 12 – ATL 10
  • Q3 04:14 TD TB (4:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 18 – ATL 10
  • Q4 11:13 TD ATL (11:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – ATL 16
  • Q4 06:14 FG TB (6:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 22 – ATL 17
  • Q4 03:30 TD ATL (3:30) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 22 – ATL 23
  • Q4 00:36 TD TB (:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-27-R.Grant, Defensive Holding, declined. TB 28 – ATL 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 68%

    (9:32) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

    (3:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to TB 9 for 2 yards (31-A.Winfield).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (1:26) 6-Y.Koo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:34) 5-J.Camarda punts 59 yards to ATL 14, Center-97-Z.Triner. 20-D.Alford MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at ATL 14.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 56%

    (6:48) 1-R.White left end to ATL 47 for -5 yards (3-J.Bates).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 78%

    (4:24) 6-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:51) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to ATL 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:09) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to ATL 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 20-D.Alford to ATL 47 for 23 yards (22-C.Edmonds, 32-J.Hayes).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 74%

    (:03) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 40%

    (12:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to TB 7, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-33-T.Flowers.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (11:36) 5-J.Camarda punts 57 yards to ATL 28, Center-97-Z.Triner. 20-D.Alford to ATL 46 for 18 yards (98-A.Nelson; 51-J.Russell).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to TB 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:53) 5-J.Camarda punts 56 yards to ATL 31, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 20-D.Alford.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to TB 21, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at TB 34 for 13 yards (37-D.Hellams).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 31%

    (:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to TB 7, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 20 for 13 yards (12-K.Hodge).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:14) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to ATL 12, Center-97-Z.Triner. 20-D.Alford ran ob at ATL 28 for 16 yards (22-C.Edmonds). PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 28.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (6:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to TB 47 for 2 yards (59-A.Smith). FUMBLES (59-A.Smith), and recovers at TB 48.