Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

(8:55) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to TB 21, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at TB 34 for 13 yards (37-D.Hellams).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.24 EP
66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model