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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 42

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 1-R.White left end to ATL 47 for -5 yards (3-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.23 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model