4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.28 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model