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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 48

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to TB 7, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-33-T.Flowers.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.23 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP