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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(:34) 5-J.Camarda punts 59 yards to ATL 14, Center-97-Z.Triner. 20-D.Alford MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at ATL 14.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 31, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model