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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 6-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model