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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2023-12-03 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread -8.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

MIA
58.2%
WAS
41.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Sam Howell (WAS) -0.070 vs Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.223 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23
–
WAS 20
Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

MIA

Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Christopher Brooks RB Questionable Knee
Lester Cotton G Questionable Illness
Jevon Holland S Questionable Knee
Robert Jones G Questionable Knee
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Back

WAS

Emmanuel Forbes CB Out Elbow
James Smith-Williams DE Out Hamstring
Tyler Larsen C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 45
–
WAS 15

Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:37 TD MIA (9:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 03:43 FG MIA (3:43) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 10 – WAS 0
  • Q1 01:01 TD MIA (1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 1-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at WAS 33. 43-A.Van Ginkel for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – WAS 0
  • Q2 11:20 TD WAS (11:20) 14-S.Howell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – WAS 6
  • Q2 09:22 TD MIA (9:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – WAS 7
  • Q2 00:24 TD MIA (:24) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 30 – WAS 7
  • Q3 09:41 TD MIA (9:41) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 37 – WAS 7
  • Q3 04:39 TD WAS (4:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell scrambles up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 38 – WAS 13
  • Q4 02:00 TD MIA (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 44 – WAS 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 46%

    (11:02) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to MIA 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:04) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to MIA 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 30 for 2 yards (2-D.Brown).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 79%

    (3:43) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:18) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to MIA 19, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (4:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell scrambles up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to WAS 30, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 41 for 11 yards (51-D.Long, 45-D.Riley).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 71%

    (14:20) 6-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 59%

    (11:30) 16-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to WAS 6, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:57) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to MIA 36, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 41 for 5 yards (59-J.Pryor, 32-T.Burgess).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson right tackle to WAS 8 for 6 yards (20-J.Martin).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.