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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 35

Washington Commanders 15 – Miami Dolphins 38

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 6-J.Slye 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.27 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model