4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 40

Miami Dolphins 38 – Washington Commanders 15

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 16-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to WAS 6, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP