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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 68

Washington Commanders 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to MIA 19, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.16 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model