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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 45

Washington Commanders 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to MIA 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth +0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model