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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Miami Dolphins
4th & 2 at the 2
Miami Dolphins 38 – Washington Commanders 15
What Actually Happened
(2:00) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.14 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
- 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth -0.38 EP
KICK
+2.05 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
