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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.09 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model