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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Monday 2023-11-20 · 20:15 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PHI
42.4%
KC
57.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.195 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.149 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 22
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

PHI

Dallas Goedert TE Out Forearm
Justin Evans S Out Knee

KC

Richie James WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 21
–
KC 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:40 TD KC (5:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-F.Cox]. PHI 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 00:36 TD PHI (:36) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – KC 7
  • Q2 01:49 TD KC (1:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG KC (:02) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. PHI 7 – KC 17
  • Q3 04:09 TD PHI (4:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – KC 17
  • Q4 06:23 TD PHI (6:23) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-90-C.Omenihu, Defensive Offside, declined. PHI 20 – KC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:39) 5-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to PHI 43, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:30) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to KC 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-57-B.VanSumeren.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:12) 5-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to PHI 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 39 for 8 yards (83-N.Gray).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:04) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to KC 34, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to PHI 45 for 21 yards (21-S.Brown).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:54) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to KC 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to PHI 46 for 16 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:10) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to KC 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to KC 21 for 10 yards (57-B.VanSumeren).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:30) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to PHI 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:11) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to KC 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to KC 29 for 4 yards (89-J.Stoll).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:11) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to PHI 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-B.Covey to PHI 39 for 26 yards (54-L.Chenal).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (14:00) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to PHI 14 for 2 yards (52-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:52) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to KC 30, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to KC 37 for 7 yards (28-J.Jobe).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 54%

    (9:04) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:39) 5-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to PHI 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 44 for 19 yards (27-C.Conner).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 83 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65%

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to KC 21 for 4 yards (21-S.Brown).