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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to KC 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to KC 29 for 4 yards (89-J.Stoll).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model