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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to KC 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-57-B.VanSumeren.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model