Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(:54) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to KC 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to PHI 46 for 16 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.77 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model