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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 5-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to PHI 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 44 for 19 yards (27-C.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model