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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(14:00) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to PHI 14 for 2 yards (52-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO +3.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.98 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model