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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 83

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to KC 21 for 4 yards (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.58 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 83, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 41, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model