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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2023-11-19 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

NYG
27.5%
WAS
72.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.233 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Sam Howell (WAS) -0.052 vs Tommy DeVito (NYG) -0.462 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 18
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NYG

Adoree' Jackson CB Out Concussion
Evan Neal T Out Ankle
Bobby McCain S Questionable Illness
Andrew Thomas T Questionable Knee

WAS

Alex Armah FB Out Hamstring
James Smith-Williams DE Out Hamstring
Antonio Gibson RB Doubtful Toe

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 31
–
WAS 19

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:35 TD NYG (6:35) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass deep right to 26-S.Barkley for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 02:15 FG WAS (2:15) 6-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 7 – WAS 3
  • Q2 06:06 TD NYG (6:06) 15-T.DeVito pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – WAS 3
  • Q2 01:38 TD WAS (1:38) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-28-C.Flott, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on WAS-4-C.Samuel, Disqualification, offsetting. NYG 14 – WAS 9
  • Q3 05:47 FG WAS (5:47) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 14 – WAS 12
  • Q4 13:37 TD NYG (13:37) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – WAS 12
  • Q4 06:52 FG NYG (6:52) 46-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 24 – WAS 12
  • Q4 02:21 TD WAS (2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left to 1-J.Dotson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 24 – WAS 18
  • Q4 00:29 TD NYG (:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 19-I.Simmons at NYG 46. 19-I.Simmons for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 30 – WAS 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:04) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to WAS 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 36 for 3 yards (47-C.Brown).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (2:15) 6-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:15) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to WAS 29, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 26 for -3 yards (30-D.Holmes).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:51) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 25 for 9 yards (32-T.Burgess).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 70%

    (10:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short left to 18-I.Hodgins. WAS-13-E.Forbes was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. WAS 13 - Elbow injury

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 16 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:53) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to NYG 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 38 for 7 yards (32-T.Burgess).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to WAS 41, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 87%

    (5:47) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 17 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (3:50) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to WAS 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 23 for no gain (19-I.Simmons).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (6:52) 46-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 8-B.Robinson to NYG 39 for 21 yards (44-N.McCloud).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:57) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to WAS 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 19 for no gain (44-N.McCloud).