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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 56

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model