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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 83

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(:15) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to WAS 29, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 26 for -3 yards (30-D.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -3.36 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 83, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 41, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model