Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 77

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 9

(1:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to WAS 41, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model