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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 82

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to WAS 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 36 for 3 yards (47-C.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.46 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model