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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 66

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 25 for 9 yards (32-T.Burgess).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.17 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP