Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 61

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 12

(3:50) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to WAS 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 23 for no gain (19-I.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
76% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model